{"id":3604,"date":"2022-06-01T00:00:09","date_gmt":"2022-05-31T22:00:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bluecapital.dk\/?p=3604"},"modified":"2024-03-12T10:41:35","modified_gmt":"2024-03-12T09:41:35","slug":"stigende-inflation-kan-styrke-investeringer-i-ejendomme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bluecapital.dk\/stigende-inflation-kan-styrke-investeringer-i-ejendomme\/","title":{"rendered":"STIGENDE INFLATION KAN STYRKE INVESTERINGER I EJENDOMME"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><p>[vc_row][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/1&#8243;][vc_column_text]P\u00e5 ret kort tid er b\u00e5de rente og inflation steget m\u00e6rkbart. Det presser mange typer af investering, men den stigende inflation kan gavne langsigtede investeringer i erhvervsejendomme.<\/p>\n<p>P\u00e5 f\u00e5 m\u00e5neder er s\u00e5vel stigende rente som \u00f8get inflation blevet faktorer, som alle investorer m\u00e5 forholde sig til. De fleste former for investering bliver p\u00e5virket negativt af de to faktorer: Den stigende rente rammer fx aktier, fordi virksomheder skal betale mere for deres l\u00e5n til eksempelvis maskiner, og den \u00f8gede inflation udhuler v\u00e6rdien af mange investeringer, s\u00e6rligt obligationer. Men for investeringer i erhvervsejendomme kan det samlede billede blive positivt p\u00e5 l\u00e6ngere sigt. Og investeringer i fast ejendom b\u00f8r altid vurderes p\u00e5 langt sigt.<\/p>\n<p>Den h\u00f8jere rente g\u00f8r selvf\u00f8lgelig indhug i afkastet, fordi l\u00e5n til realkredit og eventuelle bankl\u00e5n bliver dyrere. Ved nye projekter rammer den h\u00f8jere rente normalt med det samme, mens eksisterende projekter typisk har l\u00e5n med en vis varighed, s\u00e5 den \u00f8gede rente f\u00f8rst p\u00e5virker en ejendomsinvestering, n\u00e5r l\u00e5nene skal fornys. Undervejs er der afdraget p\u00e5 g\u00e6lden, s\u00e5 den nye, h\u00f8jere rente ikke sl\u00e5r fuldt igennem.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Inflation \u00f8ger lejeindt\u00e6gter<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Til geng\u00e6ld vil stigende inflation normalt v\u00e6re en fordel for investorer i erhvervsejendomme. \u00c5rsagen er, at lejeindt\u00e6gterne stort set altid er koblet til forbrugerpriserne. S\u00e5 n\u00e5r priserne stiger, for\u00f8ges indt\u00e6gterne fra en erhvervsejendom. Med den \u00f8gede inflation stiger ogs\u00e5 nogle af driftsudgifterne, fx til at vedligeholde ejendommen, men da lejeindt\u00e6gterne altid er meget st\u00f8rre end driftsudgifterne, har det ikke den store betydning for investorernes samlede regnestykke.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Udsigt til samlet gevinst<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Det interessante er s\u00e5, hvordan det samlede regnestykke bliver, eller hvilken effekt som er st\u00f8rst: Merudgifterne til \u00f8get rente eller merindt\u00e6gterne fra \u00f8get inflation? Det konkrete svar afh\u00e6nger naturligvis af forholdene og foruds\u00e6tningerne ved det enkelte projekt og den enkelte ejendom. Men med de tal, vi kender i skrivende stund, er vores bud p\u00e5 et kort og meget generelt svar: De f\u00f8rste \u00e5r er den samlede effekt negativ, men derefter vender det, s\u00e5 den samlede, langsigtede effekt for investor bliver positiv.<\/p>\n<p>I Blue Capital har vi siden 2010 udbudt 82 projekter med erhvervsejendomme for n\u00e6sten 3 mia. kr., typisk med detailhandel eller spisesteder. Vi f\u00f8lger n\u00f8je alle relevante n\u00f8gletal og justerer l\u00f8bende budgetterne for alle ejendomme \u2013 altid til den forsigtige side set med investors \u00f8jne. Indtil for nylig har vi budgetteret med 1 procent i inflation (forbrugerpriser) og en realkreditrente for 5-\u00e5rige l\u00e5n p\u00e5 1,95-2,20 procent inklusive bidrag.<\/p>\n<p>Med et justeret budget med 2,5 procent i inflation og en rente p\u00e5 3,7 procent inklusive bidrag bliver forrentningen af den investerede kapital lavere de f\u00f8rste \u00e5r sammenlignet med det tidligere budgetscenario. Men \u2013 som det fremg\u00e5r af grafen \u2013 vinder investor fra \u00e5r 8 og frem, fordi den \u00e5rlige effekt bliver positiv. Og efter 15 \u00e5r er den sammenlagte eller akkumulerede forrentning for investor h\u00f8jere. Investorerne vil alts\u00e5 have tjent flere penge med h\u00f8jere rente og h\u00f8jere inflation. I \u00f8jeblikket er inflationen endda h\u00f8jere end de forudsatte 2,5 procent, og s\u00e5 vil den positive effekt for investor naturligvis blive st\u00f8rre.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dobbelt gevinst<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Sagt med lidt andre ord: Investorer, som i dag skyder penge i erhvervsejendomme, m\u00e5 de f\u00f8rste \u00e5r n\u00f8jes med en lidt lavere forrentning end hidtil \u2013 til geng\u00e6ld f\u00e5r de p\u00e5 lidt l\u00e6ngere sigt samlet en st\u00f8rre forrentning. I Blue Capital anvender vi 5-\u00e5rige realkreditl\u00e5n, som traditionelt har sikret en god balance mellem en ret lav rente og sikkerhed for finansieringen et p\u00e6nt stykke ud i fremtiden. Det betyder, at investorer i eksisterende projekter n\u00e6rmest f\u00e5r dobbelt gevinst: Den tidligere lave rente er l\u00e5st fast nogle \u00e5r endnu, mens de h\u00f8jere lejeindt\u00e6gter, udl\u00f8st af den stigende inflation, ganske snart begynder at tikke ind.<\/p>\n<p><em>Artiklen i fuld l\u00e6ngde kan tilg\u00e5s\u00a0<span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/businessreview.dk\/ejendomme\/ejendomsinvesterings-raadgiveren-stigende-inflation-kan-styrke-investeringer-i-ejendomme\/\">her<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/em>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>P\u00e5 ret kort tid er b\u00e5de rente og inflation steget m\u00e6rkbart. Det presser mange typer af investering, men den stigende inflation kan gavne langsigtede i&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":3761,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[159],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>STIGENDE INFLATION KAN STYRKE INVESTERINGER I EJENDOMME &#187; Blue Capital A\/S<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bluecapital.dk\/stigende-inflation-kan-styrke-investeringer-i-ejendomme\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"da_DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"STIGENDE INFLATION KAN STYRKE INVESTERINGER I EJENDOMME &#187; Blue Capital A\/S\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"P\u00e5 ret kort tid er b\u00e5de rente og inflation steget m\u00e6rkbart. 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